Jannik Sinner faces a major challenge following an early exit at the 2025 Shanghai Masters.
Not only did he fail to defend his Shanghai Masters title after retiring due to cramps in his third-round match against Tallon Griekspoor, but Jannik Sinner is also confronted with a significant problem.
Sinner now has very slim chances of reclaiming the world No. 1 spot.
In recent days, the harsh playing conditions at the Shanghai Masters 1000 have posed a tough test for many players. As the second seed, Sinner became the latest victim when he had to withdraw while trailing 2-3 in the deciding set. His retirement due to physical exhaustion not only added unpredictability to the title race but also dealt a severe blow to Carlos Alcaraz's ambition to claim the No. 1 ranking before the end of 2025.
Exactly one year ago, Sinner made history by winning the Shanghai Masters with a victory over Novak Djokovic in the final, earning a valuable 1,000 ranking points. However, this year the Italian player was stopped in the third round, earning only 50 points, which means a loss of 950 points compared to last season. When the ATP rankings update next week, Sinner’s total will drop from 10,950 to 10,000 points.
Jannik Sinner finds it difficult to regain the world No. 1 ranking from Carlos Alcaraz by the end of 2025.
Although he still holds the No. 2 position with a comfortable margin over his closest rivals, his chances of challenging Alcaraz for the top spot have become extremely slim. Currently, after skipping the Shanghai event (losing 200 points from last year's quarterfinal), the Spanish player will have 11,340 points, which is 1,340 points more than Sinner. This gap increasingly favors Alcaraz.
Before the tournament began, it was feasible for Sinner to return to No. 1. With last week’s China Open title, if he had successfully defended the Shanghai Masters and won the Vienna Open, the Italian could have overtaken Alcaraz. But this injury-related defeat has closed that door, making the possibility of becoming No. 1 by the end of 2025 nearly impossible.
In reality, Sinner has had a breakthrough season with 8,500 points, including those earned at Shanghai this week. However, Alcaraz remains ahead with 11,040 points, 2,540 more than Sinner. Theoretically, this gap could be closed if Sinner wins all remaining tournaments: Vienna (500 points), Paris Masters (1,000 points), and an undefeated ATP Finals (1,500 points). In total, he could gain an additional 3,000 points, raising his total to 11,500.
Nevertheless, this scenario is almost purely theoretical. Even if Sinner completes all three tournaments perfectly, Alcaraz only needs to earn 461 more points from the remaining events to secure the No. 1 spot. The Spaniard will compete in the Paris Masters and ATP Finals, where he is very likely to collect points. At the ATP Finals alone, a single round-robin win awards 200 points, so Alcaraz’s chances of defending his lead are very high.
Moreover, in terms of points to defend, the advantage also lies with Alcaraz. The 22-year-old only has to protect 300 points across the final two tournaments, whereas Sinner faces enormous pressure defending 1,500 points as the reigning ATP Finals champion.
In other words, while Sinner’s hope of becoming world No. 1 by the end of 2025 is not completely gone, after this early loss at the 2025 Shanghai Masters, that hope is extremely faint.
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