If Sinner wins, he will reclaim the world No.1 spot; if Alcaraz wins, he secures the final place in the year-end Finals.

In the 2025 ATP1000 Paris Masters semifinal, Sinner demonstrated commanding form, defeating the fatigued defending champion Zverev 6-0, 6-1 within 62 minutes, advancing to this tournament's final for the first time ever. This triumph maintained his strong streak of 25 consecutive indoor hard court wins and pushed him closer than ever to the top spot in the world rankings.

Dominant advancement: The battle for world No.1 stays on course

Sinner’s victory is a strong testament to his current form. Facing Zverev, who was drained after a grueling match against Medvedev the day before, Sinner expertly exploited his opponent’s weakened serve speed to control the pace of the match. Although Sinner admitted post-match that he “didn’t want to advance this way” and expressed sympathy for Zverev’s “physical strain caused by an intense schedule over recent months,” this win unquestionably removed a major obstacle on his path to becoming world No.1.

With this semifinal victory, Sinner’s live ATP ranking points rose to 11,150, narrowing the gap to world No.1 Alcaraz to just 100 points. Since Alcaraz was upset in the first round of the Paris Masters by Norrie and has effectively withdrawn from the points race, Sinner only needs to win the final to boost his total to 11,500 points, reclaiming the top ranking by a 250-point margin. Notably, Sinner has recorded ten 6-0 “bagel” sets this season, becoming the first ATP player since Djokovic in 2015 to hit double digits in a single year, highlighting his offensive power.

Final challenge: The duel for the title and the No.1 crown

Sinner’s opponent in the final will be Canadian star Alcaraz, who defeated Bublik 7-6(3), 6-4 and is pursuing his first Masters title. This final carries great significance for both players:If Sinner wins, he will return to world No.1; if Alcaraz prevails, he will secure the last spot in the year-end Finals.

Looking at their head-to-head record, the two have met four times with an even split of two wins each, but Sinner has won their last two encounters, giving him a psychological edge. However, Sinner remains cautious, acknowledging before the match that Alcaraz “has improved significantly over the past few months and regained his competitive rhythm,” predicting the final “will be a very tough battle.” Should Sinner claim the title, his indoor hard court winning streak will extend to 26 matches, tying Pete Sampras’ record and placing him sixth all-time.

Ranking concerns: The No.1 spot may be fleeting

Even if Sinner triumphs at the Paris Masters, his reign as world No.1 might be short-lived. According to the ATP’s 52-week points system, the points he earned by winning the 2024 ATP Finals will drop off at the start of this year’s event. This means Sinner’s “No.1 experience” could last only one week, with the ultimate year-end No.1 still to be decided at the Turin Finals.

The year-end Finals carry significant ranking points, with an undefeated champion earning 1,500 points—enough to shift the standings dramatically. To solidify his top ranking, Sinner must continue his strong form in Turin after winning in Paris; meanwhile, Alcaraz could overturn the standings by earning over 500 points there. This battle for world No.1, ignited in Paris, may reach its climax in Turin.

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