The final spot for the year-end championship remains undecided until the last week! Auger-Aliassime withdraws, Musetti receives both good and bad news.

With the Paris Masters concluded, the last major event of the year—the ATP Finals—is about to take place. So far, seven players have secured their spots: Alcaraz, Sinner, Zverev, Djokovic, Fritz, Shelton, and Deminor. The final position is eagerly awaited by fans, and according to the current rankings, it will be contested between Auger-Aliassime and Musetti.

The battle for qualification to this year’s ATP Finals has been especially fierce. Musetti, originally ranked eighth, seemed almost certain to reach Turin after the Paris Masters. However, Auger-Aliassime’s unexpected resurgence disrupted everything. Despite losing to Sinner in the final, Auger-Aliassime’s recent strong performances allowed him to overtake Musetti in the rankings, putting pressure on the latter. Just when many thought the fight for the last spot would continue into this week, Auger-Aliassime’s sudden withdrawal added a dramatic twist.

“Although it’s not obvious, I do have some physical issues,” Canadian tennis player Auger-Aliassime said when announcing his withdrawal from the Metz 250 tournament. “If I qualify for the Turin ATP Finals, that would be great; if not, congratulations to Lorenzo.”

Behind this seemingly casual statement lies the intense competition for the ATP Finals’ final spot. With Auger-Aliassime’s withdrawal, this weeks-long contest has reached a critical point. Now, for Musetti, the best news is that the control over qualifying for the Finals is firmly in his hands.

Although on the surface Auger-Aliassime’s withdrawal reduces Musetti’s pressure significantly, Musetti still trails Auger-Aliassime by 160 points and must reach the final in the Athens 250 tournament (earning 165 points) to overtake him.

But it’s not that simple! The ATP points system is much more complicated. According to the rules, Musetti currently has a zero-point penalty from an ATP 500 event that cannot be replaced, while the lowest points he can substitute are 50.

This means that reaching the final in Athens would only net Musetti an additional 115 points; he must win the title and earn 250 points to surpass Auger-Aliassime and secure the last ATP Finals spot.

However, Musetti has accepted this challenge and has applied for a wildcard entry to the Athens tournament, making one final push for Turin.

Musetti’s journey in Athens promises to be tough. As the second seed, he has a first-round bye but could face strong opponents like Stan Wawrinka or Van de Zandschulp next; the quarterfinals might pit him against Jan-Lennard Struff or Alexander Müller; potential semifinal opponents include Andrej Džadrić or Sebastian Korda; and the most daunting challenge could come in the final against top seed Djokovic.

This Athens run will be a true do-or-die battle for Musetti.

The fierce competition is, of course, driven by the high stakes of the Turin ATP Finals ticket. According to the prize money scheme, even alternates receive $155,000 as standby compensation; main draw players earn $331,000 just for participating, plus $396,500 for each group stage win; and the undefeated champion will claim a record $5.071 million, while the runner-up’s prize is also a hefty $2.367 million.

Beyond the financial rewards, the Finals are about prestige. This year-end showcase gathers the top eight performers of the season and is one of the most prestigious events in professional tennis.

Musetti’s path in Athens is fraught with obstacles, and he must win the title there to secure his place in Turin. However, it’s worth noting that if Djokovic, following his past participation patterns, decides to skip this year’s Finals, this battle could end prematurely. Will the Italian receive Djokovic’s favor? Let’s wait and see!(Source: Tennis Home, Author: Lu Xiaotian)