Six wins in a row! A certain law reveals that Zheng Qinwen has a high probability of turning over next time

Since the first meeting at the 2023 US Open, Zheng Qinwen and Sabalenka have played each other six times, but China's Jinhua has never been able to climb this "mountain". Behind this collision of power and power is the high similarity of the two playing styles, the talent gap, and the disparity in key point processing ability. However, history shows that losing streaks are not the endgame, and Zheng still has a chance to make a breakthrough in the seventh meeting. In this article, the editor will analyze the technical restraint and historical turnaround cases, and look forward to Zheng Qinwen's next clay season.

First of all, Zheng Qinwen and Sabalenka are both power players, and they both use the baseline to attack as their core tactics. But Sabalenka has a natural advantage in terms of serve and power gifts: she has a higher average speed on her serve, more penetrating shots, and is able to keep pressure on multiple shots. This "homogeneous" style of play leads to confrontation between the two sides, and Zheng Qinwen often falls into passivity because of his slightly inferior strength. Sabalenka, for example, was more daring to take risks on key points, cashing in 58 per cent of her break chances (7/12) in Miami compared to Zheng's 36 per cent (4/11). Secondly, Zheng Qinwen's lack of service stability has become a fatal shortcoming. In Miami, her first serve success rate was only 47%, resulting in frequent second-serve attacks by Sabalenka, and her service hold rate dropped significantly. Sabalenka, on the other hand, was able to adjust her strategy through her experience, such as disrupting Zheng's rhythm through cutting changes, even when her form fluctuated (e.g., the quality of her serve dropped in the second set). In terms of mentality, the psychological shadow brought about by the six-game losing streak further magnifies the technical gap. Zheng Qinwen previously admitted that it is easy to "deify" Sabalenka when facing him, rather than seeing him as an ordinary opponent. This mentality led her to hesitate to handle key points, such as being broken in succession after leading 2-0 in the second set in Miami, exposing the incoherence of tactical execution.

Although Zheng Qinwen has lost to Sabalenka six times in a row, it can be found through historical cases that 0:6 is an important turnaround node. Li Na suffered six straight defeats in her career against both Stosur and Petrova, and the two are arguably the biggest nemesis of her career, but she avenged her revenge in two sets at the 2014 Rome and 2012 China Open, thanks to a refinement of technical details and mental toughness, similar to Zheng's current situation. Interestingly, after Li Na turned over Stosur in Rome in 2014, she was immediately avenged by "Maid" Errani, who had lost six in a row. In this match, Errani took advantage of the slow speed of the clay and used high spin to deplete Li Na's physical strength, and finally turned over 2-1. This case illustrates that the characteristics of the venue can be a breakthrough in breaking the deadlock of the losing streak.

Of course, in the face of the 0:6 turning law, Zheng Qinwen himself has experience in this. Zheng Qinwen had a six-game losing streak against Swiatek, but in the semifinals of the Paris Olympics, she ended her losing streak 2-0 by improving her baseline stability and backhand straight attack to win the title. This victory proves that targeted tactical adjustments and mindset shifts can overturn past disadvantages.

Therefore, if Zheng Qinwen can meet Sabalenka for the seventh time, it will be a good opportunity to turn around, but she still needs to do the following to ensure the continuation of the law: first, Zheng Qinwen needs to increase the first-serve scoring rate to more than 60%, and increase the second-serve landing point change through sidespin serve to reduce Sabalenka's chances of attacking; Secondly, more cutting and small ball tactics were introduced to break Sabalenka's batting inertia. Thirdly, add backhand straight and forehand diagonal assaults to take advantage of Sabalenka's weakness of slow movement; Finally, in terms of psychological construction, Zheng Qinwen has shown a more equal confrontation mentality in Miami, and Sabalenka also admitted after the game that "you have to do your best to win". If you can continue this confidence in the next meeting, and if you can improve your concentration in key points (such as reducing double faults and unsolicited errors), your win rate will increase significantly.

Ending the first hard court season of 2025 with a breakthrough record in the double quarterfinals of the Sunshine Double Tournament, Zheng Qinwen is about to start the clay season next month, which makes us look forward to her performance on clay this year, with only 405 points to be guaranteed, she can be said to be lightly traveling, and her style of play is naturally suitable for clay, so under normal circumstances, Zheng Qinwen can get more points on clay this year, and have a better chance of turning over Sabalenka.

The confrontation between Zheng Qinwen and Sabalenka is essentially a competition of "micro-evolution" within the power style of play. Behind the bitterness of a six-game losing streak is a positive sign that the winning points are getting closer (leading 20-17 in Miami) and that the ability to create break opportunities is improving. The double opportunity of the historical case and the clay season has injected hope into its seventh meeting. Just as Li Na has broken the curse of the year-end finals after three years, Zheng Qinwen may just need time, tactical fine-tuning and a landmark victory. If he can transform the clay season, the climb of this "mountain" may be another milestone in his career.(Source: Tennis Home Author: Xiaodi)