Zverev has a head-to-head record of 6:5 against Alcaraz. Who will win in their 12th encounter in Cincinnati?

The Cincinnati semifinals are highly competitive, featuring the top three players in men's tennis: Sinner, Alcaraz, and Zverev, all reaching the semifinals, along with a dark horse—Ataman.

In the first match, Sinner faces the French newcomer Ataman, marking their first meeting. Sinner is undoubtedly the favorite. Ataman has advanced from the qualifiers and has won seven consecutive matches, which is quite an achievement. From a physical standpoint, he should be reaching his limits.

In the second match, Zverev faces Alcaraz. Their head-to-head record stands at 6:5.

What stands out the most is still the 2022 Madrid final. During that tournament, Alcaraz defeated the third seed Nadal in the quarterfinals, the top seed Djokovic in the semifinals, and the third seed Zverev in the final! He achieved a remarkable victory over the top three players, showcasing his dominance.

In hindsight, it has been proven that Alcaraz inherited the clay court prowess typical of Spanish players, having already won two French Open titles (2024-2025) and three clay court Masters titles (2022 Madrid, 2025 Monte Carlo, 2025 Rome).

On clay courts, Alcaraz has faced Zverev four times, leading the head-to-head record 3:1, including the 2022 Madrid final and the 2024 French Open final.

However, on hard courts, Zverev leads Alcaraz 5:2. Of course, if we exclude the two encounters in 2021 when Alcaraz was just starting out, it can be considered evenly matched.

The five hard court matches that began in 2023 were all in major tournaments, including two group stage encounters at the year-end finals, both of which Alcaraz lost. Will Alcaraz inherit Nadal's "physical condition" and continue to miss out on the year-end finals title? (This question often crosses my mind.)

Based on their current form, Zverev has been quite strong in his last two matches. In the fourth round, he defeated Khachanov 7-5/3-0 (retirement), and in the quarterfinals, he swept Shelton 6-2/6-2. He has not lost a set before reaching the semifinals. However, he did experience some physical discomfort against Shelton, which raises health concerns.

Alcaraz had a tough time defeating Rublev in the quarterfinals, winning the final set 7-5 in a close match. He also dropped a set against the Bosnian player Džumhur in the second round. Arriving in Cincinnati, Alcaraz has not yet adjusted to a very good form.

If Zverev's serving can reach 80% efficiency, the scales of victory will tip in his favor. Alcaraz closely monitored his opponent's serve against Rublev, seizing every opportunity to attack the return. This strategy is also effective against Zverev. Therefore, ensuring his own serve is Zverev’s top priority.

Overall, I favor Zverev.

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